Jordan Hicks: Throwing Early Strikes and Finding Success

Jordan Hicks has been given the opportunity to be a full time starting pitcher and has run with the opportunity. Hicks has a 1.00 ERA (6th best in baseball) through his first 3 starts. This chart shows some key changes for Hicks early this season.

The most important change? First pitch strikes. Hicks is getting ahead of hitters 74% of the time in 2024, the 3rd highest rate in baseball. The majority of those first pitch strikes coming with his sinker, which he throws 71% of the time in 0-0 counts.  

Hicks’ improved ability to pound the zone with his sinker has made his sweeper and splitter even more effective. His velocity is down across the board, about 5 MPH on all of his pitches, but his movement definitely still plays.

Hicks has a demon sinker that averages 16.6 inches of run to go with his sweeper that averages 12 inches of sweep. His splitter, which he’s increased usage from 2% -> 15%, has been a nice vertical weapon for his arsenal.

This video shows how difficult Hicks is to face with his horizontal movement and the scissor effect he creates.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1778155116450779248/video/1

Pitch Breakdown

Sinker - 57% usage

	Whiff	Z-Whiff	Chase	Swing	Zone	wOBA	xwOBA	Barrel	Exit Velo
vs LHB	8%	7%	27%	50%	58%	.469	.323	13%	90.4
vs RHB	11%	7%	42%	50%	73%	.129	.170	5%	85.9

·        In the zone very frequently, uses all parts of the zone

·        Doesn’t get whiffs

·        Limits hard contact

o   3 barrels, all on 1st pitch of ABs

·        Generates ground balls 65% of the time

·        Count breakdown:

o   Usage way down when Hicks is ahead

§  Ahead in count: 25%

§  Behind in count: 83%

o   Favorite pitch to throw in 3-2 counts (80%)

Charts show all sinkers thrown

Hitter approach: Look for a sinker to hit early in the count. There’s a high probability he’ll throw the sinker first pitch, sit on a location and try to do early damage.

If he gets behind he’ll stay with the sinker, try to hunt them in these situations.

Sweeper - 22% usage

	Whiff	Z-Whiff	Chase	Swing	Zone	wOBA	xWOBA	Barrel	Exit Velo
vs LHB	50%	0%	11%	20%	10%	.700	.700	0%	90.4
vs RHB	38%	21%	27%	47%	42%	.125	.132	0%	83.5

·        Majority thrown vs RHB (45 of 55 thrown to RHB)

o   vs RHB – keeps it low and away

o   vs LHB – likes to backdoor it and surprise the hitter

·        Best whiff and chase pitch vs RHB

·        Throws it when he’s ahead in the count, will stay away when behind

o   0-1 count -> 42%

o   0-2 count -> 47%

Charts show all sweepers thrown

Hitter approach: Easier said than done but try to look for mistakes with the sweeper. If it starts in the middle of the plate try to lay off it, it’s going to break to the corner.

When your ahead in the count you don’t have to worry about the sweeper too much, that’s when you want to hunt sinkers.

Splitter - 15% usage

	Whiff	Z-Whiff	Chase	Swing	Zone	wOBA	xWOBA	Barrel	Exit Velo
vs LHB	50%	25%	32%	40%	24%	.200	.454	25%	89
vs RHB	40%	33%	25%	42%	33%	.000	.000	0%	71.7

·        Majority thrown to LHB (25 of 37 to LHB)

·        Best whiff and chase pitch vs LHB

·        18 out of 37 thrown with 2 strikes

o   LHB (31%)

o   RHB (20%)  

Charts show all splitters thrown

Hitter approach: Force Hicks to get the splitter up in the zone, if it starts at the knees try to lay off it.  It doesn’t have that much drop.

Look for splitters that start at the belt. He has a tendency to miss big, especially against LHB.

4-seam fastball (7% usage)

·        15 of 17 thrown to LHB

·        Used to change the eye level of the hitters, keeps them up in the zone.

·        Hasn't generated a whiff

Summary

Hicks has been one of the best starting pitchers early on this season. If he continues to pound the strike zone with his sinker he’ll be able to sustain his early success.

He’s incredibly tough for hitters to face because of his electric stuff. The best chance for a hitter is to attack sinkers early in the count.

Once you get behind in the count, hitters have to think about the sweeper going one way and the sinker the other way, it become an extremely difficult task. His sinker + sweeper combination is one of the nastiest in baseball, add in a nice splitter, and you have a legit starting pitcher repertoire.