Free Agent Report: Frankie Montas
- Dominick Ricotta
- Nov 14, 2024
- 4 min read
Free agent report - a recap of the 2024 season, an advanced scouting report, and a predicted valuation.
Frankie Montas started 2024 with the Reds and pitched to a 5.01 ERA. He got traded to Milwaukee at the end of July and ended up finding some more success with the Brewers (4.55 ERA). There was one start vs Arizona that inflated his ERA with Milwaukee (2.2 innings 7 ER), if you remove that start, his Brewers ERA drops to 3.6.
Montas and the Brewers made some small changes to Montas' delivery and pitch usages. These changes led to an increase in K% from 19% to 28.7% and saw his 4-seamer become a real weapon. I'm going to dive into the changes he made and give a advanced scouting report on him from his time with Milwaukee.
Changes in 2024
Pitch Metrics:
Increased velocity and spin for all pitches
4-seam: less horizontal break
Montas is a supination heavy pitcher so his 4-seam is never going to be great, he struggles to get pure back spin (81% active spin)
Continuing to play into the cutter profile a little more could help Montas' 4-seam
There are pretty stark differences when he gets less than 5 inches of horizontal break
≥ 5 inches: .370 xwOBA
< 5 inches: .282 xwOBA
Cutter: Killed vert and less horizontal break
Became more slider-ish
Sinker: Less horizontal and more vertical break
Plays more into his power 2-seam profile
Slider: Killed vert and less horizontal break
Added velocity led to less break
it became a sharper pitch, was lazy at times with the Reds
Splitter: Added 2 inches of vertical break (which usually isn't what you want for splitters)
Release point changes a big reason for this change
Because of his change in release point and added spin + velocity, all of Montas' pitches took a small shift clock wise on the plot.
Delivery:
Release point:
Vert release around 1-2 inches higher
Horizontal release 1-2 inches towards 1B side of rubber
arm angle went from 39.7 -> 47.4
Increased extension by an inch
Montas is close to the bottom of baseball in extension
Staying stacked on his back hip better and keeping better posture
More controlled and less movement
Hands - don't move as high
Reds - hands went up to around ear
Brewers - hands up to chin
In the stretch he has minimized hand movement as well
Left leg swings out less when he's bringing it up
(both games in this video are at Oracle but the angles were a bit off, tried my best to sync the release)
Advanced Scouting Report (with Milwaukee only)
vs RHB
4-Seam
Uses it more as the count gets deeper (over 50% with 2 strikes)
Keeps it away from RHB
Gets a lot of whiffs up in the zone (whiff with CIN was 25%)
Sinker
favorite 0-0 pitch
Leaves it in the heart of the plate often, can be hit for damage
Cutter
Likes to use it early in counts
It's more of a power slider than a traditional cutter
Gets in trouble when he leaves in it the zone
Slider
Sweeper-ish
Will throw it in almost any count but really likes it with 2 strikes and when he's ahead of the batter
Plays off his CUT and 4-seam well
Splitter
Saw a big decrease in usage vs RHB
24 of 36 thrown with 2 strikes
Wants hitters to be sitting 4-seam with 2 strikes and will surprise them.
Montas increased the usage of his 4-seam, sinker and cutter vs RHB once he went to Milwaukee. While his cutter and sinker both had high xwOBA, the increased usage helped his 4-seam play better. Hitters were more off-balance and Montas was able to take advantage of tunneling.
Count Breakdown
vs LHB
4-Seam
Tries to keep it away but command isn't great
Uses it more as the count gets deeper
Doesn't generate whiffs like it does vs RHB
Hitters can jump on it first pitch (doesn't get it up as much on first pitch)
.738 xwOBA --- 35% barrel
Cutter
Favorite pitch when the batters ahead in the count
With Brewers he began to backdoor it to lefties (threw it down and in with Reds)
xwOBA dropped .100 points from his time with Reds
Splitter
Will throw it in any count but loves it when he gets ahead
Easily his most effective pitch
Using the cutter on the backdoor adds another pitch for the splitter to play off
Sinker
Mostly uses it early in counts
Similar to RHB, he can get in trouble when he leaves in it the heart of the plate
Wants to front hip it but his lack of command makes it end up in the middle
Slider
Basically scraped from his game plan vs LHB
His inability to consistently back foot it made it dangerous to throw
The cutter and sinker saw an increase in usage for Montas once he went to Milwaukee. Similar to the reasoning with RHB, they thought increased cutter and sinker usage would help the 4-seam play better. It didn't work as well against LHB though, I think he needs to find another whiff pitch to pair with his splitter.
Count Breakdown
Free Agent Outlook
Montas has always been an intriguing arm, the stuff is there, but his inability to throw strikes consistently kills him. In 2024, for pitchers with at least 150 innings pitch, Montas finished 2nd in BB% (10.1%) and 44th in first pitch strike% (62.7%). He needs to get ahead of hitters early so he can go to his swing and miss pitches.
Montas has had a fairly healthy career so far (aside from 2023), having 3 seasons (2021, 2022, 2024) with 27+ games started. If he can continue to eat innings and improve his mechanics and repertoire, he's definitely one of the better lower of the rotation starters.
He signed a 1 year $16 mill contract with the Reds before last season but I doubt he gets more than $15 mill this year. I think he looks for a lower money deal for 1 or 2 years with an option (similar to Sean Manaea with the Mets).
Valuation: 2 years $26 million (Player option after 1st season)
Data courtesy of Baseball Savant. All graphics created on my shiny app (https://dominick-ricotta-baseball.shinyapps.io/RicottaBaseball/)
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