Advanced Scouting report: Luis Severino vs KC Royals

Royals @ Mets 4/12/2024

Severino is facing off against the red-hot KC Royals tonight in Queens, NY. I dove into what Severino has done so far this year and how I think he should attack the Royals hitters.

All images are from the app I'm working on building. Data is courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Breakdown vs LHB:

Aggressive up and in with 4s and Cutter. Generates good chase inside and has kept hard contact down.

Breakdown vs RHB:

Keeps the ball low and away, will pop a 2s inside. 4s really only whiff pitch, mostly up in zone.

All Hitter data is vs RHP.

Maikel Garcia 

Aggressive 4s fastball hitter (53% swing, 58% barrel). Low whiff% and low chase%.

Keys for Severino: Get 4s up at top of zone, keep SL + Cut low and away.

Reasons: Barrels in the middle (horizontal) third of the zone (chart to right). Will foul off or take FB above the middle third.

Bobby Witt Jr. 

Aggressive hitter no matter the pitch type.

Keys for Severino: Keep SL + Cut low and away. Make sure to stay down in zone. Be careful with 4s. Use sinkers in to keep him honest.

Reasons: Witt loves the ball middle (horizontal), especially 4s and hanging SL. Whiffs for the most part are on outer part of plate (chart to right).

Vinny Pasquantino

Patient, low whiff.

Keys for Severino: Has to make sure he keeps the CH either out of the zone or on the edges. (He hasn't generated any chase on the CH yet.) Use 4s + Cut up and in to set up the CH down.

Reasons: Has seen CH more than any other pitch vs RHP. (3.4% whiff but 43% chase, 86 MPH avg exit velo) Won’t whiff but can get him to make contact out of the zone.

Salvador Perez

Aggressive, especially on 1st pitches. High whiff% against SLs and Sweepers. Will chase often.

Keys for Severino:  Keep the ball away and out of the zone. Can generate whiffs on his Slider + Sweeper and chases on his 4s + Cutter. Be careful with 4s Salvy likes them on inner half of plate.

Reasons: Salvy struggles to lay off breaking balls low and away. Will go out of zone for 4s + Cut away. Whiffs shown in chart to right.

MJ Melendez

Aggressive vs CH, 4s, Cutter.

43% whiff vs 4s – mostly up and away or inside. Will chase CHs down and away.

Keys for Severino:  Play into where Melendez whiffs. Keep the 4s inside on the hands or up and away. Pair it with the Cutter in on the hands. Can throw CH down out of the zone when needed.

Reasons: Melendez struggles on pitches inside. Does most of his damage on pitches middle away and middle-middle.

Nelson Velazquez

High chase% and high whiff% (Whiffs on right). Looks to attack 1st pitches.

Sweeper - 70% whiff, 60% zone whiff

Cutter – 57% whiff, 33% zone whiff

CH and SL – both 50% whiff

Keys for Severino:  Get chases and induce soft contact. Keep the ball away from Velazquez. Be aggressive throwing 1st pitch fastball up to get ahead.

Reasons: Velazquez makes a lot of out of zone contact which leads to soft contact. His barrels are on pitches inside and middle-middle. If Severino can get ahead with a fastball the rest of the AB should be all offspeed and breaking balls.

Adam Frazier

Patient, contact hitter. Doesn’t swing at pitches up in the zone.

Keys for Severino:  Throw strikes and play to his low exit velocity. 4s up in the zone can steal a strike. Can get him to chase CHs (50% chase).

Reasons: Frazier won’t go out of the zone and is selective with his swing decisions. He’s not a guy Severino will want to walk so he should try to pound the strike zone.

Hunter Renfroe

Likes to attack fastballs. Will whiff often especially against 4s fastballs (62% whiff, 60% zone whiff)

Keys for Severino:  Keep the ball away. Throw a lot of breaking balls in fastball counts. 4s can get whiffs but he does hunt fastballs so have to be selective. Be careful with 2s, keep them off the plate inside, most of Renfroe’s balls in play are against 2s.

Reasons: Renfroe hunts fastballs but struggles to put 4s into play. He’ll whiff at breaking balls.

Kyle Isbel

Patient, doesn’t whiff often but will chase and make contact out of zone. Likes the ball down and in.

CH – 60% chase – 63% swing

SL – 80% chase – 75% swing

CUT – 67% chase – 63% swing

Keys for Severino:  Get Isbel to make contact out of the zone to generate soft balls in play. Isbel likes to attack CHs, SL, and CUT, keep them off the plate. Can steal strikes with fastballs up and away.

Reasons: Isbel has done good damage on CHs when they are in the zone and he can get good wood on it. He doesn’t attack 4s (47% swing) like he does other pitches. If he does swing he usually just fouls it off.

Summary

LHB:

Severino’s CH will be super important today. Royals hitter will chase CHs out of the zone but Severino has a 0% chase rate vs LHB on the pitch this season.

4s and Cutter inside on the hands will make the CH more effective. If he can land the 4s and Cutter early then I expect him to get some whiffs on the CH.

RHB:

Keep the ball away.  Royals RHB struggle on pitches away, it’s super important Severino is able to pound the glove side consistently. He’s done a great job of that so far this season.

A lot of the Royals are good fastball hitters, Severino should mix in more Cutters and breaking balls to keep them off his 4s.

What to expect

If Severino’s command is as good as it’s been so far this year I think he’ll be successful against this Royals lineup. Severino has to play into the chase, which he’s done well so far (34%).

Kansas City are good fastball hitters but they chase the 6th most in baseball (34%). Severino should continue to throw his 4s but he has to be careful with location against this team. I expect his pitch usages to be slightly different in this game than they have been so far. Less fastballs, more breaking balls and CHs.